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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aimed to test the explanatory qualities of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) when applied to patients treated in routine practice. METHODS: S-TPI predictions were compared with observed outcomes in terms of normal/near-normal (modified Rankin Scale score, ≤1) and catastrophic outcome (modified Rankin Scale score, ≥5) at 3 months. Logistic regression was used to calibrate and expand the S-TPI. RESULTS: The S-TPI overestimated probability of catastrophic outcomes and overestimated the probability of a normal/near normal outcome above 0.4 and underestimated those below. Calibrating the S-TPI minimized discrepancies between predicted and observed outcomes, in the case of normal/near-normal outcomes, where including additional predictors (serum glucose and signs of current infarction on pretreatment brain scan) further reduced discrepancies between predicted and observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The explanatory power of the S-TPI in thrombolytic-treated patients can be improved to reflect outcomes seen in routine practice.

Original publication

DOI

10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.671073

Type

Journal article

Journal

Stroke

Publication Date

12/2012

Volume

43

Pages

3378 - 3381

Keywords

Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Calibration, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Logistic Models, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, ROC Curve, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke, Thrombolytic Therapy, Treatment Outcome, United Kingdom