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Version 2.1


UKPDS Outcomes Model v2.1 is an update to v2 with many useful features and enhancements.  

Key New Features

  • Up to 25 treatment groups can be specified (previously the limit was 3)
  • The user can specify which groups to compare, by default group 1 is compared with each of the other groups
  • There is a new output sheet for Loop Convergence which shows the cumulative means for Costs and Qalys over loops processed
  • There is a new output sheet for Cost and Disutility by Event
  • Treatment costs can be split by drug acquisition, administration, adverse events and other treatment related costs
  • Up to 5 Composite events can be specified in the Model Parameters sheet. CV death and Other death are provided by default but can be replaced or removed.
  • A new output file can optionally be produced containing the Patient level bootstrap data
  • A new option was added to collect only the first event of each type

Enhancements and fixes

  • Major improvements in speed
  • Up to 124 processors can now be utilised, previously the limit was 10
  • Options to disable various outputs for speed eg Event sheetsPatient level data
  • Resolved some disk space issues by moving the Working folder to the location of the input workbook
  • Some compatibility issues fixed with the Output workbook
  • Resolved some issues with limits for Risk Factor values
  • Fixed memory management issues with large datasets
  • Fixed some user reported issues with virus checkers

Version 2.0


UKPDS Outcomes Model v2 (OM2) is a completely new and revised version of the original model. The equations and details are described in full in UKPDS Paper 82 (Diabetologia 2013;56:1925-1933).  

Key New Features

  • Includes additional risk factors: Albuminuria, Heart rate, WBC, Haemoglobin and eGFR.
  • Includes additional clinical events: Diabetic ulcer and CVD death.
  • New equations now predict second events for MI, Stroke and Amputation.
  • Can supports up to 3 groups of patients in a single run and provide a summary for each group as well as group differences.
  • Produces Kaplan-Meier plots, where appropriate, for clinical events.
  • Cost / utility values can now be varied by age and by sex.
  • Addition of therapy costs by patient group with pre and post complication costs for user selected triggering events.
  • Calculation of Monte Carlo Error allows the simulation to be fine tuned.
  • The OM2 Controller Application can manage a queue of workbooks to run multiple simulations unattended.
  • Parallel processing can take full advantage of up to 10 computer cores to speed up model execution.
  • The number of available bootstraps has been increased to provide improved estimates of confidence intervals.
  • The option to run any particular subset of the data has been included.
  • Ability to use larger datasets with up to 1,048,559 patients in a single simulation has been provided by switching to XLSM data files.

Version 1.3


Bug Fixes

  • Corrected smoking status check and amputation output and added cohort outputs in Standalone version.
  • Smoking status is now calculated once per loop instead of once per patient.

New Features

  • Cumulative Event rate output for events has been replaced with Event rate and Long-term history rate.
  • Diabetes related death has been separated into a separate output sheet from other death.
  • A new group column has been added to the Inputs sheet after the ID column. This allows outputs of 2 patient groups to be compared.
  • The Input Checks have been combined into a single sheet.
  • The Excel macros are now digitially signed.

Version 1.2.1



Corrected an issue on page 17 of the manual (Example #1) where the example incorrectly stated that the age entered should be 60. The correct value is 59.


New Features

There is now an option to run the Standalone Implementation of the model without user intervention from the command line and other suitable applications.

Version 1.2

Updated UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.

Bug Fixes

  • Incorrect handling of updated smoking status risk factor values has been fixed.
    In version 1.1 past smokers (value 1) were treated as current smokers (value 2), and current smokers were treated as a doubling of the smoking effect.


  • Updated risk factor values are now applied correctly at the end of the year stated, rather than at the start as in version 1.1.

New Features

  • There is now an option to use any of 100 random number sequences. This allows different random number sequences to be selected and exactly the same sequence to be used repeatedly, as desired.
  • The 1000 bootstrap parameter sets are always used in the same sequence, with wrap round to the first set if necessary. In version 1.2 the option to choose which bootstrap parameter set is to be used at the start of a model run has been added.
  • Updated estimated annual risk factor levels generated by the model for each subject are now provided on output worksheets for inspection or can to be copied to inout sheets for use in further model runs if desired.
  • A “pre-flight check” option ensures that all of the input data are present and within acceptable ranges BEFORE the model is run.
  • Worksheet tabs have been coloured for ease of identification (PC version only) as follows:
    • Input worksheets------------------- Yellow
    • Run worksheet --------------------- Red
    • Check worksheets ----------------- Salmon
    • Output worksheets----------------- Green
    • Risk Factor Output worksheets ----- Pink
  • Input worksheets have been amended so that:
    • Age is no longer checked against duration of diabetes
    • Alphanumeric data can be used in the “ID” column.
  • Windows Users can now choose a desired location for the install and the shared core dll is placed in the system folder.
  • In addition to the Microsoft Excel implementation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model a standalone implementation that runs on Windows, Macintosh and Linux platforms has now been provided. This implementation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model can handle an unlimited number of subjects (See section 13 of the manual) and does not require Microsoft Excel.

Version 1.1

Updated UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.

Version 1.0

UKPDS Outcomes Model software released.